Hamburg, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXUS66 KMFR 122123
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
223 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fire weather concerns continue this afternoon as dry conditions
  with elevated afternoon winds persist. A Red Flag Warning
  continues into tonight for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and
  southwest Lake counties.

* Northerly surface breezes in Jackson County will push more
  smoke into the Rogue Valley today. The most accumulation has
  been in the Medford and Grants Pass area, with meaningful
  accumulation through Ashland and lesser amounts reaching the
  Illinois Valley. Smoke may further accumulate overnight once
  daytime breezes dissipate.

* A shift to southerly flow looks to bring atmospheric moisture
  and instability to start the week ahead. Thunderstorm chances
  remain in the forecast for Monday and increase on Tuesday, but
  the most recent model runs are showing decreasing support for
  widespread activity.

* Warm and dry conditions may return on Friday and could continue
  through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow aloft between a Pacific trough
and midwest high pressure remains a guiding feature for the short-
term forecast. With a tighter pressure gradient continuing between
these features, afternoon and evening breezes will remain slightly
higher than usual. For the Red Flag Warning area, gusts of 25 to 30
mph are possible. For other east side areas, afternoon gusts will be
in the 20-25 mph range. Cloud cover moving from south to north over
east side areas indicates the arrival of monsoonal moisture along
that upper flow.

Surface winds in Jackson County are starting a turn to the north,
which looks to push smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire towards the
Rogue Valley. Air quality sensors already show affects from
lingering smoke from Grants Pass to Ashland and trace effects into
the Applegate and Illinois valleys. Northerly breezes in Jackson
County ease into the late evening/overnight period, allowing smoke
to linger in low-lying areas. Individuals with air quality concerns
may want to carefully consider travel plans in this timeframe,
especially with the absence of winds capable of helping smoke clear
out of the area.

A cutoff low slides into the Pacific trough, making the feature
deeper and shifting flow aloft to be more southerly in orientation
on Monday. High pressure over the CONUS will also increase, nudging
daytime highs to 5-10 degrees above normal early in the week ahead.

This will continue to guide monsoonal moisture over the
area, with cloud cover over the east side this afternoon
representing the arrival of that moisture. A combination of this
atmospheric moisture as well as upper level instability has made
afternoon and evening thunderstorms a concern for east side areas to
start the week ahead. Today`s SPC CAMs shows isolated pulse
thunderstorms are possible over easternmost Modoc and Lake counties
on Monday. While Tuesday still has potential for more widespread
activity, the latest model runs show instability moving eastward
which would limit activity over the CWA. Additionally, if cloud
cover continues into Tuesday morning, surface heating would be
limited which would take convective influence away into the
afternoon. That said, this is one model run and additional runs will
help to establish confidence in this interpretation. Chances for
isolated thunderstorm activity remain for Wednesday and occasionally
even Thursday, but look to be isolated at most.

In the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, the cutoff low will start
drifting east then northeast, cooling daytime highs slightly on
Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures rebound to end the week
as higher pressure moves in to take its place. With the ridge axis
remaining farther east, staying in the 5-10 degrees above normal
range is generally expected. To illustrate this, NBM probabilistic
data keeps a 40-50% chance for Medford to reach 100 degrees for
Friday through next Sunday with lower 20-30% chances into the Shasta
Valley and the rest of the Rogue Valley. NWS HeatRisk data shows
Moderate levels for these areas, which is not Advisory-worthy but
still helps to support the forecast of warmer conditions for next
weekend. -TAD



&&

.AVIATION...12/18 TAFs...VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals throughout the valid TAF period with one caveat along/near
the coast. Smoke is still present in parts of the Rogue Valley.

Northwest winds will become breezy this afternoon. A return to
MVFR/IFR conditions is forecast for the coast tonight while winds
begin to weaken.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 12, 2026...Gusty north
winds is bringing conditions hazardous to small craft in all waters
through Monday morning. Steep seas linger in areas south of Port
Orford through Monday evening. Conditions improve late Monday, but
areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds may persist into
mid-week for areas south of Port Orford.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Sunday, July 12, 2026...Elevated
to critical fire weather concerns continue today, with a Red Flag
Warning in place for southeast portions of the forecast area
through tonight.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the
afternoons and evening continue across northern California and
eastside areas. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens
today coupled with those gusty winds. This will result in critical
fire weather conditions across Modoc county and southeastern
portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today.

Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of the week as
monsoonal moisture pumps into the region. There is currently a
slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in
southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and
eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher
chance for thunderstorms which could result in lightning over dry
fuels for northern California and eastside areas. While chances
continue into Wednesday, the overall threat will be lower when
compared to Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions are possible over next
weekend.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$